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Who will win the Delhi Assembly election 2020? Will Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) retain power on its claim of work on electricity, health, schools, and water, etc.? Or the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will turn the table in the name of 'Modi, Mandir and persecuted Hindu minorities in Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan'?
This we will get to know on February 11. The Election Commission of India (ECI) has announced the schedule for the 11th Delhi Assembly Election. 1.46 crore voters of Delhi will cast their votes on February 8 to decide who will govern the national capital. Will the AAP retain power? Can the BJP end its dry-run in Delhi after 21 years? What is the role of the Congress party in this Assembly election?
Decisive nature of Delhi voters
This needs a careful reading of the Delhi voters' mood, as elections in Delhi at different levels produce different outcomes. Since the inception of the AAP in Delhi election 2013, the electoral fight became triangular. However, the choices of Delhi voters mostly very decisive when it comes to choose their government except 2013 polls- be it Assembly, Lok Sabha or MCD.
What's large within the above graph is that since the emergence of the aap in delhi, the congress birthday celebration has became a far off third party in the nation which ran delhi constantly 15 years between 1998 and 2013. 2d, that the aap gained in opposition to the congress ordinarily as the bjp's vote proportion has been constantly stagnant among 32 and 36 in keeping with cent in last 3 meeting elections. The minimal for the bjp in delhi meeting become 32 per cent votes in 2015. The 0. 33 takeaway is that small parties and independents had been getting less appeal of electorate in delhi. In the previous couple of elections, assembly or lok sabha, the combination vote percentage of 3 important parties - aap, bjp and congress - has been more than 95 according to cent of votes. On the identical point, who delhi offers the mandate, they provide 'chhappad phad ke'. In the remaining assembly election, the aap gained 67 out of 70 seats, the bjp managed to win handiest 3 seats and the congress become not able to open its account. But, in the last lok sabha election 2019, the bjp changed into main in 65 out of 70 assembly segments even as the congress was main in handiest 5 meeting segments and the aap was now not leading in even a single assembly section.
Even in terms of vote share, it is definitely unexpected how delhi's voters behave very decisively and one sided in specific elections. The aap had 54 consistent with cent of votes in delhi meeting election in 2015 but the vote percentage decreased to 18 in step with cent within the 2019 lok sabha election. On the other hand, the bjp's vote percentage in 2019 lok sabha jumped 25 consistent with cent from the 2015 assembly election.
Kejriwal and his challenge
The vote swing of delhi electorate makes delhi election exciting till the closing second. As one of the recent survey on delhi governance completed by way of the prestigious organization lokniti-csds suggested a very excessive level of satisfaction with the performance of the arvind kejriwal government inside the nation.
86 according to cent of the entire respondents said they're either absolutely satisfied (53 consistent with cent) or truly satisfied (33 in keeping with cent) with kejriwal. This delight degree no longer simplest comes from the arvind kejriwal's non-public popularity as the leader minister but additionally comes from the benefits of the one-of-a-kind welfare schemes like loose water fee, low fee of electricity, implementation of mohalla sanatorium and development in college infrastructure, and so on.
The above graph suggests that the vote percentage of the aap has been declining since the 2015 assembly election. Simply two years again in the 2017 mcd election, the aap lost 28 in line with cent votes upon getting a huge mandate in 2015. And this decline continued in the latest lok sabha election 2019, when the aap's vote percentage further declined to 18 in keeping with cent. However, the bjp won s big vote proportion in 2019 lok sabha from its beyond overall performance within the delhi meeting and mcd election which helps them now not handiest to win all seven parliamentary seats however also to get a lead in sixty five assembly segments. Inside the meantime, the performance of the congress become not wonderful in those three elections. However, the celebration's performance without delay affects the overall performance of the aap. In those three elections, the congress' vote percentage has been growing and it in particular comes on the expense of the aap. Besides the bjp in delhi which got greater than 30 consistent with cent of votes in every election considering 1990s, the base vote of the aap and congress has been fluctuating from election to election. If the bjp holds its cadre vote and the congress get the sizable share of votes then the final results of the delhi meeting election 2020 would be very thrilling.
The 2020 battle in Delhi
To make the delhi election triangular, the congress either needs to hold its vote proportion of lok sabha 2019 (23 according to cent) or enhance from there. However, it appears not likely because of reasons - first, due to loss of a reputable face (leader) and susceptible employer of congress in delhi when it comes to selected the nation government and 2nd, because of the decisive nature of delhi voters as they always go with the leading party. One of the enormous factors is that once the 2019 lok sabha election, the bjp became now not be capable of keep its overall performance in the state meeting elections. Within the latest assembly elections in haryana and jharkhand, the bjp lost round 20 in keeping with cent of votes from the 2019 lok sabha election, inside a span of some months. Additionally, given that gujarat election 2017, the bjp has no longer been capable of get the general public in a single country. This indicates the bjp's weak point to carry out in the country assembly. Within the name of modi, the celebration has been capable of hold its base vote round one-third in the state assembly but when you have to combat in opposition to any other strong country leader like kejriwal, the party desires to benefit a further five to 10 in keeping with cent of votes from its base vote to win the election. Will modi, the ram mandir verdict and implementation of the caa (as the bjp campaigns on those 3 troubles) get additional votes for the birthday celebration in this election to defeat the aap? Best time will inform.